When American guitarist Ry Cooder travelled to Cuba to assemble some of Cuba's finest musicians for The Buena Vista Social Club album, he wrote: "In Cuba, the music flows like a river. It takes care of you and rebuilds you from the inside out". These words could apply equally to Cuba overall. No-one who travels around the country meeting the Cuban people could fail to be deeply affected by the experience. Russell Lansbury* shares some of his own.

Cuba has just celebrated the fortieth anniversary of the revolution led by Fidel Castro in 1959. While the achievements of the past four decades are formidable, particularly in the context of relentless opposition to the Castro government by the US, Cuba is currently facing some of the most difficult economic, social and political problems in its history. Yet there is no doubt that Fidel Castro still commands widespread support among the Cuban people. For while Cuba remains poor in terms of per capita income, it boasts a literacy rate of 95 per cent (equal to Australia and Sweden) and Cubans enjoy one of the world's highest life expectancies (75 years).

Cubans have a great pride in their nation's history, and particular honour is given to the heroes of the struggles for independence over the past 400 years or so. While Che Guevara and Fidel Castro are venerated as the leaders of the 1959 revolution, they are seen as inheriting the mantle of the earlier leaders of the independence movement, who also opposed US dominance in the region.

The Troubled Relationship with the US
Despite the support which the US gave to both the dictatorships of Garado Muchado (in the 1920s and 30s) and Fulgencio Batista (in the 1940s and 50s), Fidel Castro sought to achieve a working relationship with US President Eisenhower after 1958. Instead, the US covertly supported the abortive Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961 which led Castro to seek an alliance with the Soviet Union. The current problems which Cuba faces with the trade embargo by the US stems from this period.

The embargo was launched in 1960 when the US sought to punish Cuba for adopting socialist policies. Two years later the US stopped all trade in food and medicines and prohibited aid to any country which traded with Cuba. In 1992 US Senator Torricelli introduced the Cuban Democracy Act which extended the trade ban to overseas subsidiaries of US companies, although this did not prevent firms like Coca Cola sending supplies to Cuba via Mexico. In 1996, Senators Helms and Burton co-sponsored the Cuba Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act which further restricted foreign investment in Cuba. Although this pleased the Anti-Castro Cuban exile community in Florida it outraged both Canada and the European Union which had investments in Cuba. The EU even threatened to complain to the World Trade Organisation about extra-territorial interference in trade by the US.

Current Economic Problems
The combination of the Soviet collapse and the tightening of the US blockade caused an economic crisis in Cuba but has failed to bring down the Castro government. However, it did cause President Castro to declare a special period of austerity involving rationing of food and petrol. He also introduced radical changes in economic policies including amendments to the Constitution to allow Cubans to hold foreign currency, to open US dollar bank accounts and to spend US dollars at hard currency shops (previously restricted to foreigners). Self employment in more than 100 trades was legalised and farmers were permitted to sell some of their produce on the open market. One of the most surprising moves was to permit foreign companies to run wholly-owned businesses and to purchase real estate in Cuba.

It is estimated that each year more than one billion American dollars is remitted by Cubans living in the United States to their families back home, even though this is forbidden by the US government. The gap between those families with access to dollars and those without is growing apace. The new rich are principally those who work in the tourist industry. This not only includes those who are in legitimate fields, such as the official tourist operators but also the unofficial taxis, unlicensed accommodation and the growing number of prostitutes. Professionals such as doctors and teachers, whose government-controlled wages remain pitifully low, are among the new poor.

Human Rights in Cuba
One of the main criticisms by opponents of the Castro government in the US and elsewhere concerns human rights abuses in Cuba. Amnesty International has complained that many individuals are being held in Cuban jails who would be considered prisoners of conscience in the West. Prison sentences have been handed out to people for criticising Cuba's current leadership and for seeking to organise opposition parties. One of Cuba's best known human-rights dissidents, Elizardo Sanchez, has spent 8 out of the last 20 years in jail for his outspoken views. The Cuban government refuses to extend legal recognition to the Cuban Commission for Human Rights and Natural Reconciliation which is headed by Sanchez and has prevented the Commission from opening an office. Sanchez characterises the Castro government as a hybrid between the totalitarian model of the former Soviet Union and the cardillismo (strong man) model of Latin America, which is able to exercise social control by means of repression and propaganda. Yet he also acknowledges that the Castro government maintains a broad base of popular support and that the situation for human rights dissidents has improved in recent years. The churches have also been given greater freedom and their support is growing, especially since the Pope's visit. Younger people indicated to us that they were more prepared to speak out in favour of greater personal freedom than their parents' generation, even though this could jeopardise their future careers.

It should be acknowledged that unlike many other Latin American countries, there are no death squads in Cuba which conduct extra judicial murder and there have not been disappearances of dissidents as have occurred elsewhere. Yet as Elizardo Sanchez points out, the number of prisons has grown from 12 to 300 over the past 40 years mainly due to the cases of people jailed for social dangerousness (which includes dissent). One of the main justifications given by the government for its wariness of opposition has been the efforts by the US government and the Cuban exiles to overthrow the Castro regime by any possible means. Critics like Sanchez acknowledge that the US policies and activities have helped to foster repression in Cuba and that it has been immoral, inhuman and illegal for the US to deny Cubans the possibilities of buying food and medicine from their closest neighbour.

Future Directions for Cuba?
If the US embargo is lifted it is likely that the Cuban government will follow a more market oriented economic policy while retaining a strong emphasis on social measures. However, it needs to have a more diversified economy which is less reliant on sugar cane, mining and tourism. Before US foreign policy pushed Castro firmly into the Soviet camp, Cuba was seeking to establish a broader based economy. However, the Soviet Union gradually took control and required Cuba to become more reliant on supplying sugar cane to Eastern bloc countries.

The Soviet Union paid more than the world price for Cuban sugar and arranged a sugar-for-oil swap which increased Cuba's dependence on sugar exports. By the 1990s sugar cane covered nearly half Cuba's arable land and occupied three times the space devoted to food crops. The government is currently seeking to rationalise the industry by closing inefficient mills and stabilising production. For the time being, however, sugar remains Cuba's principal industry, accounting for about 70 per cent of total exports. The main markets are still Russia and China. Furthermore, fuel shortages during the 1990s resulted in sugar cane production falling to the lowest level in 50 years. Thus, sugar is hardly a reliable product on which to build the future and Cuba must become less dependent on this single commodity.

Cuba is fortunate to be rich in mineral ores, especially nickel, and has 37 per cent of the world's nickel reserves. Given the high cost of research and development, as well as other aspects of production and marketing, Cuba needs to find strategic partners for future development.

Tourism has become the fastest growing industry and is now Cuba's largest source of foreign exchange. With around one million visitors a year, Cuba receives far less tourists than other areas in the Caribbean but it is nevertheless having a profound impact on Cuban society. The US still prohibits it citizens from travelling to Cuba (except under special conditions) and no airlines may fly direct from the US to Cuba. Under the new foreign investment laws, foreign companies are funding new resorts and visitor levels are increasing by 50 per cent each year.

Most tourists fly directly to resorts which are located at some distance from major towns. However, increasing numbers are travelling around the country and spending their US dollars. Tourism is currently worth more than one billion US dollars per year so that Cuba is becoming increasingly dependent on the profits (around 30 per cent) which flow from the industry.

The inflow of tourists is making it increasingly difficult (if not impossible) to disguise the two tier economy which is developing in Cuba. Recently, Fidel Castro warned the nation that social evils of the West were reappearing in Cuba in the form of increased robberies and prostitution. Castro's response was to expand the size of the police force and to increase the severity of punishments and jail terms. Yet while Cuba remains extremely peaceful and law abiding in comparison with most countries, it is unlikely that it will remain so if tourism continues to expand as such a fast rate and under the current dual economic arrangements.

There is growing concern about the likely successor to Fidel Castro as he nears mid 70, and uncertainty about the policy directions which Cuba will follow, especially if the US trade embargo is lifted and US capital and tourists begin to pour into the country. Apart from Raul Castro and a handful of veterans from the 1958 revolution, the most likely future leaders will be drawn from the ranks of the technocracy and from younger people who have not known life in Cuba before Castro. It is to be hoped that Cuba does not follow the path of some other Latin American countries and become another example of a failed experiment in neo-liberalism, even if socialism under Castro has not achieved its objectives. The next group of leaders will have to find a pathway to the future which ensures that the great social achievements of the revolution are maintained while a balanced and diverse approach to economic development is achieved.

Professor Russell Lansbury is Head of Research, Work and Organisational Studies, University of Sydney

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