Research Expertise
Micro/Macro-Econometrics
Research is continuing on several fronts. One major project concerns the empirical modeling and evaluation of the effects of volatility in international markets upon the production decisions within the Australian economy. The econometric model combines GARCH modeling of the prices of traded goods and GNP function estimation. A second set of projects deals with the econometric estimation of an infinite horizon optimization model. This model is to be estimated using aggregate Australian data. A third set of projects is concerned with the inter-temporal modeling of retirement, using an over-lapping generations computable general equilibrium model structure.
Staff members with expertise in micro/macro-econometrics
Computational Econometrics
Much recent research within the discipline has been concerned with developing computationally intensive estimation methodology for econometric and statistical models. These involve the development of computer-intensive algorithms that exploit the availability of fast processors. Their development has been driven by the growth of high frequency business and microeconomic data sources that warrant detailed modelling to accurately capture the underlying generating processes. Such complex models cannot be readily estimated using traditional methods of estimation, and computationally intensive methods are required. These methods include the generalised method of moments, simulated maximum likelihood, the EM algorithm and particularly Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. These have been applied to a wide variety of models including: semiparametric regression and time series models for intra-day electricity load forecasting, spatial smoothing models for real estate prices, stochastic volatility models for foriegn exchange prices, stated preference models in marketing, covariance matrix estimation for stock returns and semiparametric choice models from health economics.
Staff members with expertise in computational econometrics
Data Analysis
Data analysis through econometric model construction and estimation allows the progressive recognition of trends and patterns in the data that promote understanding of what is significant or important about the given set of data. Particular projects currently underway within the Discipline involve data sourced from a variety of areas including health economics, labour economics, finance, energy economics and housing economics. For example, cross-section models of ATM and EFTPOS usage are being developed from data sourced from the Reserve Bank of Australia to assist decision making about future banking business. Also, the modeling of student data is is allowing an explanation of students' academic results by their perception of workload, workforce participation, tutorial performance, and the goals and standards set in their respective courses.
Staff members with expertise in data analysis
Operations Research/Management Science
Current OR/MS projects relate to production & operations management, resolving corporate insolvency, and the design of performance-based contracts. The operations management project is investigating production planning for post-mass production facilities under batch manufacturing. This production environment introduces unusual challenges for production planning, capacity planning and regime-change management and these are critical for implementation in conjunction with corporate ERP software. Corresponding heuristics are being developed for multi-criteria production models to define optimum practice in the food industry. The corporate insolvency project is being conducted in conjunction with the Accounting discipline, and is developing practical, optimum procedures for the resolution of corporate insolvencies when ASIC Deeds of Cross Guarantee are in place. Such insolvencies are typically avoided by the courts due to their complexity. This project models an insolvency by a programming model with parameter dependency. This approach offers resolutions for parameter settings between the extremes of joint responsibility and joint-and-several responsibility, as a decision tool for administrators and the courts. The performance-based contracts project is conducted in conjunction with the Institute of Transport studies, and is developing principles for optimum design of performance-based contracts in the bus industry, with a view to providing efficiency improvements over current tendering processes. A non-linear model optimizes consumer surplus implications of PBC design in a way that is robust across widely differing operator regions, and throws light on the big issues of subsidy budgets, patronage growth, and car usage.
Staff member with expertise in operations research/management science